October 2026 Global Logistics & Trade Update: Preparing for Peak Season
As we enter the final quarter of 2026, businesses are navigating a logistics environment shaped by changing tariff policies, elevated freight costs, port congestion, and the approaching holiday peak season.
For importers, exporters, retailers, manufacturers, and growing brands, the key to a successful Q4 is preparation. Understanding current trade developments, reviewing inventory and transportation plans, and working closely with a reliable logistics and international shipping partner can help reduce unexpected costs, processing delays, and disruptions.
Here are the key developments businesses should be watching this month.
Tariffs & Trade Policy: What Importers Should Know
Tariff policy continues to evolve, making accurate classification, documentation, and landed-cost planning more important than ever.
In September, U.S. Customs and Border Protection issued new guidance regarding Section 301 China product exclusions. The guidance addresses amendments to certain exclusions following changes to the Harmonized Tariff Schedule that took effect July 1, 2026. Importers should continue reviewing product classifications and applicable tariff treatment to make sure entries are being filed correctly.
The U.S. also continues to maintain additional trade measures affecting imports from numerous countries. In July, USTR announced Section 301 actions involving 60 economies related to forced-labor policies, with additional duties ranging from 10% to 12.5% depending on the country and applicable exceptions.
The broader tariff environment remains fluid, with additional investigations and trade negotiations underway. USTR currently lists active Section 301 investigations involving areas including Vietnam, Germany, China, Brazil, and structural excess capacity in manufacturing.
What does this mean for businesses?
Before placing or receiving international orders, companies should confirm:
- The correct HTS classification for each product
- Country of origin requirements
- Current duty and tariff rates
- Whether any exclusions or special tariff programs apply
- Required customs documentation
- Expected landed costs
- Whether a change in sourcing could affect tariff exposure
Tariffs can change the economics of a shipment quickly. Reviewing these details before cargo moves is often much easier than addressing unexpected costs after arrival.
De Minimis Changes Continue to Affect Low-Value Shipments
Another major change businesses should continue to account for is the suspension of duty-free de minimis treatment.
The United States suspended duty-free de minimis treatment for qualifying low-value shipments from all countries in 2025, and the policy remains in effect. CBP has also established new procedures for certain postal shipments, with additional compliance requirements scheduled for October 22, 2026.
For brands that historically relied on low-value shipments to move products directly to U.S. customers, this can affect landed costs, customs processing, and fulfillment strategies.
Businesses should review their current shipping model and determine whether inventory positioning, consolidated shipments, warehousing, or other fulfillment strategies could create greater efficiency.
Peak Season Is Here: Plan Before Capacity Tightens
The holiday shipping season is already influencing global freight markets. Demand has remained resilient, while congestion and blanked sailings are putting additional pressure on available capacity.
The industry is also moving through the period immediately following China’s Golden Week holiday. Carriers have announced blanked sailings around the holiday and into late October, which can affect available capacity and sailing schedules even as seasonal demand begins to moderate.
For businesses moving holiday inventory, waiting until the last minute can mean fewer routing options, higher transportation costs, and less flexibility when disruptions occur.
Our Q4 Peak Season Checklist
Businesses preparing for holiday demand should consider taking these steps now:
1. Review inventory levels
Compare current inventory with projected holiday demand. Identify products that may require replenishment sooner than expected.
2. Book transportation early
Secure ocean, air, truckload, LTL, or other transportation capacity before demand becomes more concentrated.
3. Build in additional transit time
Weather, congestion, customs inspections, blanked sailings, and inland transportation constraints can all affect delivery schedules.
4. Review customs documentation
Make sure commercial invoices, packing lists, HTS classifications, country-of-origin information, and other required documentation are accurate before cargo moves.
5. Calculate landed costs
Tariffs, duties, fuel costs, transportation rates, storage, and other fees can significantly affect the final cost of imported goods.
6. Have a backup plan
Your Radius representative can identify alternative ports, carriers, transportation modes, or routing options before a disruption occurs. Just be sure to tell them ahead of time. Start planning now.
7. Communicate realistic delivery expectations
If your customers are expecting holiday delivery, make sure your internal inventory and transportation timelines support those commitments.
Ocean Freight Isn’t the Only Market to Watch
Air cargo remains an important option for time-sensitive shipments, particularly when businesses need to replenish inventory quickly or avoid missing a critical delivery window.
Recent Freightos data shows that global air freight rates remain elevated, with Far East–North America rates recently increasing and overall air cargo pricing still well above year-ago levels.
For certain products, the additional cost of air freight may be justified when compared with the potential cost of lost sales, stockouts, or missed holiday deadlines.
The right transportation mode isn’t always the cheapest option. It is the option that best balances cost, timing, reliability, and inventory needs.
Reliability Requires More Than Moving Freight
In today’s logistics environment, successful shipping is about more than finding a carrier and booking a container.
Businesses need visibility into:
Cost → Capacity → Customs → Transit → Delivery
Each step can affect the next.
At Radius International, our goal is to help customers navigate these moving pieces with reliable logistics solutions and proactive communication. From international freight forwarding and customs coordination to warehousing, transportation, and supply chain support, our team works with businesses to create logistics strategies that fit their needs.
Looking Ahead to the Rest of 2026
As we move deeper into Q4, businesses should be thinking beyond the immediate holiday rush.
Now is a good time to begin planning for:
- Post-holiday inventory levels
- January replenishment orders
- Lunar New Year production and factory closures
- 2027 sourcing decisions
- Changes in tariff exposure
- Long-term warehousing needs
- Transportation contracts and carrier capacity
- Supply chain diversification
The companies that plan early have more options when conditions change.
Need Help Planning Your Next Shipment?
The global logistics landscape can change quickly. Radius International helps businesses navigate international shipping, freight forwarding, warehousing, customs, and supply chain needs with a focus on reliable, on-time service.
If your business is preparing for peak season or planning international shipments for the months ahead, our team is ready to help you build a logistics plan that keeps your freight moving.
Contact Radius International to discuss your upcoming shipments and logistics needs.
